What does it take to Win?
In our view, it is the grey rhinos when unattended over time become black swans. Most of the black swan events including the financial crisis of 2008 had enough warning signals and the invested parties ignored all these signals (with their biases and stakes).
Be it a grey rhino or an elephant, if we do not act on them long enough without taking action, and closer we get to them, there is no other way than being run over by them.Here are the rules or the safari guide to prevent the grey rhinos running over us.
Rule # 1 Stay Downwind
Most of the business incentive systems are around short term thinking and short term results. Meeting the monthly and quarterly targets. For example, closing this season’s range, booking orders, delivering them, discounting what does not work, etc takes always a priority over say reducing lead time (time to market), improving forecast accuracy, deeper analysis of why some products did not work, etc..